Opposition parties have stated they will not run in the by-elections. PPP has started a march against the government from Karachi. Bilawal Bhutto has marched from Karachi to Islamabad. They will travel a long distance in 8 to 10 days to reach Islamabad.
The PPP march will end at a rally in Islamabad or Bilawal Bhutto will encamp, the PPP has not yet clarified. All the opposition parties have agreed that the government should be run now but there is no agreement on the modalities of the movement against the government. PML-N wants to bring a no-confidence motion against the Prime Minister, while the PPP has proposed a no-confidence motion against the Speaker to tighten the noose against the government.
Both the parties are ready to change the political environment in Punjab too but there is a difference of opinion between PPP and PML-N on who will get the throne of Lahore. PPP proposed to give the seat of Chief Minister of Punjab to PML-Q while PML-N disagreed with this proposal.
The next election is one year away. The term of office will end in August 2023 next year. In such a short span of time, if the opposition parties succeed in bringing a no-confidence motion against the Prime Minister, then the opposition parties have not agreed on the formula of power-sharing. Maulana Fazlur Rehman, head of the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, who is also the head of the opposition parties’ coalition PDM, has played a key role in this situation. Maulana Fazlur Rehman is trying to get the two main opposition parties, the PML-N and the PPP, to agree on an opinion. Apparently, all the opposition parties are ready to wage a drumbeat war against the government but they do not agree to launch a movement against the government.
The PML-N is announcing that a no-confidence motion could be brought at any time. And there are reports that a no-confidence motion will be tabled during or immediately after the PPP march. The situation at the moment is that the opposition parties and the government have instructed their coalition members to remain in Islamabad. If the opposition is fighting against the government, then the government is not silent. The government is also gearing up to deal with the situation.
If the opposition moves a no-confidence motion, then look at the party’s position in the National Assembly. At present, the ruling party PTI has the support of 179 out of 341 parties, including the coalition parties, which includes its own 155 members. The other parties include MQM-7, PML-Q-5, Balochistan Awami Party-5, GDA-3, Awami Muslim League-1, JWP-1 and two independents. Opposition parties currently have 162 members. This includes 84 members of PML-N, 56 members of PPP, 15 members of MMA, 4 members of BNP, one member of ANP and two independents. There is a difference of 17 between government and opposition members. The opposition will need the support of PTI members as well as government allies to win the no-confidence motion. That is why the PTI members from the opposition parties who are in government
In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, too, PTI members who have been deprived of government privileges or dissatisfied with government policies for four years have been approached by central leaders of opposition parties and have sought time for consultations. The opposition still has to work hard for a no-confidence motion. If it is agreed to bring a no-confidence motion against the first speaker, it will be the fault of the opposition. Then this movement will not be able to move forward on failure. Opposition groups called for a no-confidence motion against the Prime Minister.
If we look at the Senate elections a year ago, the PPP fielded Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani for the Senate seat from Islamabad and apparently it was very difficult for the opposition to win this seat but at that time the PPP along with other opposition parties Defeated the government. Before the Senate election, the government candidate Hafeez Sheikh had 181 members and the opposition candidate Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani had 160 members, but on election day the results were reversed. Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani became a senator by a margin of five votes and the government candidate could not win despite gaining a majority. The next day, the government won the Senate and Deputy Chairman’s seats. Although the opposition parties have a majority in the Senate, the opposition is facing defeat in the legislature.
It has always been difficult for the opposition parties to compete for the government of the time, unless they have the blessings of the forces behind it. We have a few examples in the past. The government of Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif was run with the help of 58 (2) B. Even Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who won a two-thirds majority, could not complete his term. In this situation, the forces behind the scenes now have a major role to play.
The no-confidence motion game is now on a numerical edge. Unless the opposition succeeds in getting the required number, it should not make the mistake of bringing a no-confidence motion. Opposition parties have stated they will not run in the by-elections. And this failure could affect the opposition movement as well. The PDM has also announced a march on March 27. The opposition is preparing to send the government home ahead of time. The opposition is trying to tear down the government wall with a no-confidence motion, but given the circumstances, there are no signs of the government leaving prematurely.